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Merge pull request #211 from natashawatkins/patch-2
Edit typos in prob_meaning.md
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lectures/prob_meaning.md

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@@ -78,7 +78,7 @@ The random variable $X $ takes on possible values $k = 0, 1, 2, \ldots, n$ wit
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$$
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\textrm{Prob}(X = k | \theta) =
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\left(\frac{n!}{k! (n-k)!} \right) \theta^k (1-\theta)^{n-k} =
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\left(\frac{n!}{k! (n-k)!} \right) \theta^k (1-\theta)^{n-k}
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$$
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where the fixed parameter $\theta \in (0,1)$.
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Consider the following experiment:
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Take $I$ **independent** sequences of $n$ **independent** flips of the coin**
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Take $I$ **independent** sequences of $n$ **independent** flips of the coin
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Notice the repeated use of the adjective **independent**:
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## Bayesian Interpretation
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We again a binomial distribution.
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We again use a binomial distribution.
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But now we don't regard $\theta$ as being a fixed number.
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={Beta}(\alpha + k, \beta+N-k)
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$$
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A beta Distribution with $\alpha$ and $\beta$ has the following mean and variance.
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A beta distribution with $\alpha$ and $\beta$ has the following mean and variance.
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The mean is $\frac{\alpha}{\alpha + \beta}$
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As shown in the figure above, as the number of observations grows, the Bayesian coverage intervals (BCIs) become narrower and narrower around $0.4$.
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However, if you take a closer look, you will find that the centers of the are not exactly $0.4$, due to the persistent influence of the prior distribution and the randomness of the simulation path.
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However, if you take a closer look, you will find that the centers of the BCIs are not exactly $0.4$, due to the persistent influence of the prior distribution and the randomness of the simulation path.

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