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lectures/business_cycle.md

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## Overview
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In this lecture we review some empirical aspects of business cycles.
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In this lecture, we review some empirical aspects of business cycles.
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Business cycles are fluctuations in economic activity over time.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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:tags: [hide-input]
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# Set Graphical Parameters
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# Set graphical parameters
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cycler = plt.cycler(linestyle=['-', '-.', '--', ':'],
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color=['#377eb8', '#ff7f00', '#4daf4a', '#ff334f'])
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plt.rc('axes', prop_cycle=cycler)
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## Data acquisition
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We will use `wbgapi` and `pandas_datareader` to retrieve data.
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We will use World Bank's data API `wbgapi` and `pandas_datareader` to retrieve data.
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We can use `wb.series.info` with the argument `q` to query available data from
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the [World Bank](https://www.worldbank.org/en/home).
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For example, let's retrieve the ID to query GDP growth data.
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For example, let's retrieve the GDP growth data ID to query GDP growth data.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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wb.series.info(q='GDP growth')
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```
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We can the metadata to learn more about the series (click to expand).
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We can look at the series' metadata to learn more about the series (click to expand).
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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:tags: [hide-output]
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(gdp_growth)=
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## GDP growth rate
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First we look at GDP growth.
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First, we look at GDP growth.
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Let's source our data from the World Bank and clean it.
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ax.plot(data.loc[country], label=country, **g_params)
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# Highlight Recessions
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# Highlight recessions
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ax.axvspan(1973, 1975, **b_params)
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ax.axvspan(1990, 1992, **b_params)
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ax.axvspan(2007, 2009, **b_params)
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Greece experienced a very large drop in GDP growth around 2010-2011, during the peak
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of the Greek debt crisis.
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Next let's consider Argentina.
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Next, let's consider Argentina.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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---
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Notice that Argentina has experienced far more volatile cycles than
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the economies examined above.
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At the same time, growth of Argentina did not fall during the two developed
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At the same time, the growth of Argentina did not fall during the two developed
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economy recessions in the 1970s and 1990s.
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Let's examine this trend further.
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With slight modifications, we can use our previous function to draw a plot
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that includes multiple countries
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that includes multiple countries.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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---
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for country in countries:
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ax.plot(data.loc[country], label=country, **g_params)
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# Highlight Recessions
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# Highlight recessions
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ax.axvspan(1973, 1975, **b_params)
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ax.axvspan(1990, 1992, **b_params)
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ax.axvspan(2007, 2009, **b_params)
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```
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We use the United Kingdom, United States, Germany, and Japan as examples of developed economies
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We use the United Kingdom, United States, Germany, and Japan as examples of developed economies.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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plt.show()
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```
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We choose Brazil, China, Argentina, and Mexico as representative developing economies
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We choose Brazil, China, Argentina, and Mexico as representative developing economies.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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Despite the synchronization in GDP growth, the experience of individual countries during
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the recession often differs.
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We use unemployment rate and the recovery of labor market conditions
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We use the unemployment rate and the recovery of labor market conditions
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as another example.
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Here we compare the unemployment rate of the United States,
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United Kingdom, Japan, and France
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the United Kingdom, Japan, and France.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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We see that
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* consumer sentiment often remains high during an expansion and
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drops before a recession.
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* consumer sentiment often remains high during expansions and
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drops before recessions.
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* there is a clear negative correlation between consumer sentiment and the CPI.
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When the price of consumer commodities rises, consumer confidence diminishes.
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One example is domestic credit to the private sector by banks in the UK.
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The following graph shows the domestic credit to the private sector as a
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percentage of GDP by banks from 1970 to 2022 in the UK
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percentage of GDP by banks from 1970 to 2022 in the UK.
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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---

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