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lectures/business_cycle.md

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@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ In this lecture we review some empirical aspects of business cycles.
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Business cycles are fluctuations in economic activity over time.
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The include expansions (also called booms) and contractions (also called recessions).
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These include expansions (also called booms) and contractions (also called recessions).
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For our study, we will use economic indicators from the [World Bank](https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/api) and [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/).
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In our {ref}`previous discussion<gdp_growth>`, we found that developed economies have had
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relatively synchronized periods of recession.
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At the same time, this synchronization does not appear in Argentina until the 2000s.
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At the same time, this synchronization did not appear in Argentina until the 2000s.
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Let's examine this trend further.
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With slight modifications, we can use our previous function to draw a plot
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that includes many countries
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that includes multiple countries
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```{code-cell} ipython3
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---
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However, emerging and less developed economies often experience more volatile
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changes throughout the economic cycles.
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Despite of the synchronization in GDP growth, the experience of individual countries during
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Despite the synchronization in GDP growth, the experience of individual countries during
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the recession often differs.
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We use unemployment rate and the recovery of labor market conditions
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We see that France, with its strong labor unions, typically experiences
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relatively slow labor market recoveries after negative shocks.
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We also notice that, Japan has a history of very low and stable unemployment rates.
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We also notice that Japan has a history of very low and stable unemployment rates.
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## Leading indicators and correlated factors
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We see that
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* consumer sentiment often remains high during during expansion and
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* consumer sentiment often remains high during an expansion and
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drops before a recession.
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* there is a clear negative correlation between consumer sentiment and the CPI.
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When the price of consumer commodities rises, consumer confidence diminishes.
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This trend is more significant in the during [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation).
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This trend is more significant in the [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation).
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### Production
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Real industrial output is highly correlated with recessions in the economy.
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However, it is not a leading indicator, as the peak of contraction in production
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plt.show()
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```
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Note that the credit rises during economic expansion
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Note that the credit rises during economic expansions
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and stagnates or even contracts after recessions.
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