You signed in with another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You signed out in another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.You switched accounts on another tab or window. Reload to refresh your session.Dismiss alert
Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: lectures/business_cycle.md
+8-11Lines changed: 8 additions & 11 deletions
Display the source diff
Display the rich diff
Original file line number
Diff line number
Diff line change
@@ -20,7 +20,7 @@ In this lecture we review some empirical aspects of business cycles.
20
20
21
21
Business cycles are fluctuations in economic activity over time.
22
22
23
-
The include expansions (also called booms) and contractions (also called recessions).
23
+
These include expansions (also called booms) and contractions (also called recessions).
24
24
25
25
For our study, we will use economic indicators from the [World Bank](https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/api) and [FRED](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/).
26
26
@@ -413,12 +413,12 @@ The labor market recovered at an unprecedented rate after the shock in 2020-2021
413
413
In our {ref}`previous discussion<gdp_growth>`, we found that developed economies have had
414
414
relatively synchronized periods of recession.
415
415
416
-
At the same time, this synchronization does not appear in Argentina until the 2000s.
416
+
At the same time, this synchronization did not appear in Argentina until the 2000s.
417
417
418
418
Let's examine this trend further.
419
419
420
420
With slight modifications, we can use our previous function to draw a plot
421
-
that includes many countries
421
+
that includes multiple countries
422
422
423
423
```{code-cell} ipython3
424
424
---
@@ -561,7 +561,7 @@ business cycles are becoming more synchronized in 21st-century recessions.
561
561
However, emerging and less developed economies often experience more volatile
562
562
changes throughout the economic cycles.
563
563
564
-
Despite of the synchronization in GDP growth, the experience of individual countries during
564
+
Despite the synchronization in GDP growth, the experience of individual countries during
565
565
the recession often differs.
566
566
567
567
We use unemployment rate and the recovery of labor market conditions
@@ -597,7 +597,7 @@ plt.show()
597
597
We see that France, with its strong labor unions, typically experiences
598
598
relatively slow labor market recoveries after negative shocks.
599
599
600
-
We also notice that, Japan has a history of very low and stable unemployment rates.
600
+
We also notice that Japan has a history of very low and stable unemployment rates.
601
601
602
602
603
603
## Leading indicators and correlated factors
@@ -684,19 +684,18 @@ plt.show()
684
684
685
685
We see that
686
686
687
-
* consumer sentiment often remains high during during expansion and
687
+
* consumer sentiment often remains high during an expansion and
688
688
drops before a recession.
689
689
* there is a clear negative correlation between consumer sentiment and the CPI.
690
690
691
691
When the price of consumer commodities rises, consumer confidence diminishes.
692
692
693
-
This trend is more significant in the during [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation).
693
+
This trend is more significant in the [stagflation](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation).
694
694
695
695
696
696
697
697
### Production
698
698
699
-
700
699
Real industrial output is highly correlated with recessions in the economy.
701
700
702
701
However, it is not a leading indicator, as the peak of contraction in production
0 commit comments