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This is proven in {cite}`sargent2023economic` and a nice discussion can be found [here](https://math.stackexchange.com/questions/2433997/can-all-matrices-be-decomposed-as-product-of-right-and-left-eigenvector).
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In the formula $\lambda_i$ is an eigenvalue of $P$ and $v_i$ and $w_i$ are the right and left eigenvectors corresponding to $\lambda_i$.
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In this formula $\lambda_i$ is an eigenvalue of $P$ with corresponding right and left eigenvectors $v_i$ and $w_i$ .
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Premultiplying $P^t$ by arbitrary $\psi \in \mathscr{D}(S)$ and rearranging now gives
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@@ -485,7 +486,7 @@ The following is a fundamental result in functional analysis that generalizes
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Let $A$ be a square matrix and let $A^k$ be the $k$-th power of $A$.
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Let $r(A)$ be the dominant eigenvector or as it is commonly called the *spectral radius*, defined as $\max_i |\lambda_i|$, where
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Let $r(A)$ be the *spectral radius* of $A$, defined as $\max_i |\lambda_i|$, where
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* $\{\lambda_i\}_i$ is the set of eigenvalues of $A$ and
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* $|\lambda_i|$ is the modulus of the complex number $\lambda_i$
Copy file name to clipboardExpand all lines: lectures/markov_chains_I.md
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@@ -98,7 +98,7 @@ In other words,
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If $P$ is a stochastic matrix, then so is the $k$-th power $P^k$ for all $k \in \mathbb N$.
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Checking this is {ref}`one of the exercises <mc1_ex_3>` below.
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Checking this in {ref}`the first exercises <mc1_ex_3>` below.
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### Markov chains
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(mc_eg3)=
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#### Example 3
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Imam and Temple {cite}`imampolitical` categorize political institutions into three types: democracy (D), autocracy (A), and an intermediate state called anocracy (N).
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Imam and Temple {cite}`imampolitical` categorize political institutions into three types: democracy $\text{(D)}$, autocracy $\text{(A)}$, and an intermediate state called anocracy $\text{(N)}$.
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Each institution can have two potential development regimes: collapse (C) and growth (G). This results in six possible states: DG, DC, NG, NC, AG, and AC.
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Each institution can have two potential development regimes: collapse $\text{(C)}$ and growth $\text{(G)}$. This results in six possible states: $\text{DG, DC, NG, NC, AG}$ and $\text{AC}$.
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The lower probability of transitioning from NC to itself indicates that collapses in anocracies quickly evolve into changes in the political institution.
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The lower probability of transitioning from $\text{NC}$ to itself indicates that collapses in anocracies quickly evolve into changes in the political institution.
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Democracies tend to have longer-lasting growth regimes compared to autocracies as indicated by the lower probability of transitioning from growth to growth in autocracies.
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To simulate a Markov chain, we need
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1. a stochastic matrix $P$ and
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1. a probability mass function $\psi_0$ of length $n$ from which to draw a initial realization of $X_0$.
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1. a probability mass function $\psi_0$ of length $n$ from which to draw an initial realization of $X_0$.
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The Markov chain is then constructed as follows:
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To implement this simulation procedure, we need a method for generating draws
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from a discrete distribution.
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For this task, we'll use `random.draw` from [QuantEcon](http://quantecon.org/quantecon-py).
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For this task, we'll use `random.draw` from [QuantEcon.py](http://quantecon.org/quantecon-py).
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To use `random.draw`, we first need to convert the probability mass function
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to a cumulative distribution
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### Using QuantEcon's routines
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[QuantEcon.py](http://quantecon.org/quantecon-py) has routines for handling Markov chains, including simulation.
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QuantEcon.py has routines for handling Markov chains, including simulation.
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Here's an illustration using the same $P$ as the preceding example
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There are $n$ such equations, one for each $y \in S$.
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If we think of $\psi_{t+1}$ and $\psi_t$ as *row vectors*, these $n$ equations are summarized by the matrix expression
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If we think of $\psi_{t+1}$ and $\psi_t$ as row vectors, these $n$ equations are summarized by the matrix expression
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```{math}
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:label: fin_mc_fr
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\psi_{t+1} = \psi_t P
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```
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Thus, to move a distribution forward one unit of time, we postmultiply by $P$.
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Thus, we postmultiply by $P$ to move a distribution forward one unit of time.
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By postmultiplying $m$ times, we move a distribution forward $m$ steps into the future.
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The distributions we have been studying can be viewed either
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1. as probabilities or
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1. as cross-sectional frequencies that a Law of Large Numbers leads us to anticipate for large samples.
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1. as cross-sectional frequencies that the Law of Large Numbers leads us to anticipate for large samples.
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To illustrate, recall our model of employment/unemployment dynamics for a given worker {ref}`discussed above <mc_eg1>`.
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### Calculating stationary distributions
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A stable algorithm for computing stationary distributions is implemented in [QuantEcon.py](http://quantecon.org/quantecon-py).
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A stable algorithm for computing stationary distributions is implemented in QuantEcon.py.
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